Overview and future forecast of the hottest refine

2022-08-22
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Product oil market overview and future forecast (September 21 - September 27)

in late September, the domestic gasoline and diesel market showed the consumption characteristics of "golden nine and silver ten". Not only did the gasoline demand maintain a high and stable sales trend before the "Golden Week" was coming, but also the diesel demand realized that it was gradually booming, and the terminal sales volume was rising. The main factors affecting the market are: first, the international oil price has remained at a high level of more than $80 for a week in a row, and the society expects prices to rise, with a strong willingness to hoard oil; Second, international oil prices are high, refinery costs remain high, production enthusiasm is frustrated, resources are reduced, and market resources are tight; Third, the two groups are short of resources, and their reluctance to sell is aggravated. They try their best to improve direct pricing and are keen to "maintain zero"; Fourth, the weather in most areas is sunny, transportation and infrastructure enter the peak season, and the busy farming season in inland areas is coming, and the demand for diesel terminals has rebounded strongly; Fifth, the "National Day" golden week is coming, and the number of users hoarding oil before the festival is increasing; Sixth, in order to control the pace of sales and ensure the maximization of operating profits, the two groups constantly adjusted the sales price according to the market conditions to control the pace of sales, which increased the tension in the market. Seventh, the rare and expensive self extracted resources and the rising prices have coaxed the atmosphere of rising prices. The approved prices in some regions such as East China and central China have exceeded the retail prices

recent market factors

(1) international oil prices have consolidated at historical highs

last week, supported by a series of news, such as the closure of oil production facilities in the Gulf of Mexico, the sharp decline in U.S. crude oil inventories, and the Federal Reserve's announcement of interest rate cuts, the international crude oil price hit the highest price since the launch of crude oil futures in March 1983. Although the crude oil price corrected this week, it was still at an all-time high

(2) the rise of the intermediate price is facing a dilemma

in order to ensure the stability of social prices, the national development and Reform Commission has made every effort to maintain the stability of the intermediate price of refined oil. The national development and Reform Commission said on September 13 that in principle, no new government price hikes will be introduced this year. The prices of goods and services subject to government guidance and government pricing shall be strictly implemented in accordance with the relevant provisions of the state, and it is strictly forbidden to set prices beyond authority or raise prices without authorization. At present, price inspections organized by governments at all levels are being carried out in full swing. Even though the two groups and social units have the desire to raise prices, they dare not break through the retail price level under the control of policies

(3) the two groups comprehensively lock in volume and price

arouse the entrepreneurial and innovative vitality of small and medium-sized enterprises. This week, the two groups comprehensively lock in volume and price in three steps: first, stop the wholesale of gasoline and diesel oil to social business units and completely cancel price concessions; second, delegate power to local enterprises to appropriately push up prices according to inventory and market conditions, and the direct selling price of gasoline and diesel oil is gradually close to the national retail price. Third, the price of gas stations will continue to implement the State stipulated in place price of additives to maintain the price rigidity of the retail market. Fourth, closely cooperate with the main business units of the other party, The price shall follow the principle of "three sameness".

(4) Reduction in local refining resources

recently, local refining enterprises have reduced resources on the market due to high crude oil prices and more production cuts or shutdown for maintenance. This week, the ex factory price of Shaanxi Yanlian gasoline and diesel remained at the level of last week, +5# diesel railway ex factory price continued to maintain the level of 5050 yuan/ton, and 90# gasoline railway ex factory price stabilized at 5400 yuan/ton. Shandong refining market was supported by its own low inventory level and relatively strong market demand, and both volume and price rose. Diesel prices of ten refineries including Shenghua, Lijin and Dongming have continued to rise since last week. Mainstream quotations of Shandong local refineries: 90 # gasoline yuan/ton, 93 # gasoline yuan/ton, 0 # diesel yuan/ton. Compared with last weekend, 90 # gasoline and 93 # gasoline increased by 20 yuan, and 0 # diesel moved up by 50 yuan. Northern Shaanxi underground railway: 90 gasoline 5400 yuan/ton, +5 diesel 5050 yuan/ton. Shaanxi Dilian highway: Yanlian highway 90 gasoline 5350 yuan/ton, 93 gasoline 5650 yuan/ton, +5 diesel 5030 yuan/ton. Yongping refinery highway 90 gasoline 5300 yuan/ton, +5 diesel 5060 yuan/ton. Yulin refinery highway 90 gasoline 5370 yuan/ton, +5# diesel 5130 yuan/ton

(5) the enthusiasm of production enterprises is mediocre

refinery enterprises lack production enthusiasm, enter more maintenance, and reduce market launch. For example, this week, due to the reduction of resources entering the customs and entering the sea, the allocation plan of PetroChina North China region was reduced by 50%. In East China and other places, due to the reduction of resources from north oil to the south, the allocation plan was significantly reduced compared with last month

(6) resources in the Yangtze River Delta are scarce

this week, PetroChina northeast xiahai oil decreased, free resources in the East China market were scarce, and the overall sales price increased slightly. At the weekend, the market price of No. 0 diesel fuel in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai was about yuan/ton, and No. 90 gasoline remained at the level of 5900 yuan/ton; The land market price of No.0 diesel and No.90 gasoline is at the level of yuan/ton and yuan/ton respectively

(7) the processing cost of self mining is high, and the refinery has few self retained resources, which once put self mining in a high-risk dilemma: first, resources are scarce, prices are high, docking is difficult, and the self mining plan is difficult to complete. Second, the cost is high, and the purchase and sales are upside down, making it difficult to make profits. Recently, some oil companies have applied to the local government to implement a high in high out price policy for self extracted resources. A few local governments have relaxed price checks. It is reported that the wholesale price of gasoline and diesel oil in some units in East China has exceeded the in place price of retail additives

(8) the smuggling of oil in coastal areas is reduced

recently, due to the large number of maintenance of small refineries, the journey can be 600-800mm; The operating rate has decreased, the inventory consumption is fast, and the arrival of non-standard oil in all provinces is not much. In addition, the customs in coastal areas have increased efforts to punish smuggling, reducing the smuggling of oil in South China and weakening its impact on the market

(9) the export of refined oil has profits

due to the large export profits, there is still a phenomenon that exports are greater than imports in China. From January to August, China imported 24.28 million tons of refined oil, a year-on-year decrease of 5.7%; The export of refined oil was 10.28 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 25.3%. In August, China imported 2.53 million tons of refined oil, with a total amount of $1.267 billion, or a unit price of $501.033 per ton; The export of refined oil is 1.29 million tons, with a total amount of 803 million US dollars, or a unit price of 623007 US dollars/ton. Experts believe that the large profit margin of exports is one of the reasons for the shortage of domestic refined oil products in August

(10) railway transportation "protects customers and agriculture"

from late September to November, the demand for agricultural products and passenger transport is large, and the transportation of oil products will be restricted by bottlenecks. Especially during the National Day golden week, railway transportation will be tight again as passengers come first and then goods. This week, the Ministry of Railways continued to require the emptying of railway tank cars in the northwest, resulting in a sharp decline in the number of railway tank cars owned by Beijing Railway Bureau and Zhengzhou Railway Bureau. At present, all railway bureaus mainly ensure the transportation within the Bureau, and it is difficult to deliver goods to Taiyuan Railway Bureau

(11) typhoon postponed the landing of CNOOC

affected by Typhoon "VEPA" this week, heavy rain fell in most coastal areas, alleviating the pressure of consumer demand on resource supply to a certain extent. At the same time, most oil tankers also delayed loading and unloading and shipping due to sheltering. Recently, the 30000 ton imported oil tanker safely avoided typhoon "VEPA" and arrived in time to unload oil. It is expected to be put into use at the beginning of next month

(12) retail has entered global competition

the retail market has become the focus of competition at home and abroad. It is reported that Sinochem total will build a retail network of 300 gas stations in Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang to provide comprehensive services including convenience stores, car washes and car maintenance. Geely, PetroChina Fangshen and SINOCHEM total Zhangwan gas stations in North China adopt the promotion of gasoline price reduction and gifts, with a gasoline discount of 0 1 yuan/ton; Shell Shibalidian plus 4) the size of the initial crack in the ceramic body is equivalent to the mm level microstructure. The service station adopts the activity of refueling and giving gifts

(13) reduction of mining oil

at present, the state restricts the disorderly development of resources, cleans up and reorganizes small mining enterprises, and a large number of local coal mines, coal mines, stone factories, brick kilns, etc. have been shut down for rectification. Generally speaking, the mining oil consumption in North China and Northwest China has decreased compared with previous years

late market forecast

there are many positive and negative factors in the current market: first, there are many factors supporting the rise in prices. At present, the market price is supported by the refining cost, the purchase price of the sales enterprise, the self purchase price of the sales enterprise, and the business flow cost and transportation cost, so there is a continuous desire to rise. The international oil price continues to rise, which has formed a strong support for the stable and upward price, while the efforts of the main business units and social units to push prices and the high self mining costs will form a driving force for the upward price, It is expected that the situation of "wholesale, retail and price" will appear and increase in the later stage, and the operating units in some regions may "buy higher than others" with their own resources "For the sake of pretext, tentatively break through the national retail price. Second, there are factors that control the price stability. Although the international crude oil price is rising and breaking through the historical level, the 17th National Congress of the Communist Party of China is about to be held. In order to ensure social stability and stabilize prices when the CPI exceeds 6.5%, it is expected that the country will not raise the retail price of refined oil in the near future. Third, resources continue to be tight. Due to the low processing profits of refineries, it is expected that in the next In the next two to three months, the crude oil processing volume will not increase significantly year-on-year. It is estimated that the average monthly crude oil processing volume is slightly higher than 27million tons. Refineries will still try their best to export gasoline under high profits, and supply pressure may appear at any time when diesel is in the peak consumption season. For example, recently, there has been a shortage of diesel in North China, and the difficulty of 97 × gasoline supply in East China has attracted the attention of the government. Fourth, demand has entered the golden season. The third quarter of each year is the peak season for industrial and agricultural production, and this year is no exception. Especially when the 17th CPC National Congress is about to be held, and the Olympic Games enters the construction peak of countdown, the demand for oil products is booming, entering a new era in history. The supply-demand relationship in the fourth quarter needs to be further adjusted, and the two groups have a long way to go

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