Excerpt from the analysis and outlook of the hotte

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In the first half of the year, China's economy continued to maintain a steady and positive development trend, the growth rate of energy consumption increased significantly over the same period last year, the growth momentum continued to change, the energy structure continued to be optimized, the pace of transformation accelerated, and the quality and efficiency of development continued to improve. Specifically, it has the following six characteristics: first, the overall recovery of energy consumption. Second, the energy structure should be further optimized. Third, the new and old drivers of energy demand growth continue to shift. Fourth, energy supply continues to improve. Fifth, energy supply and demand are generally loose. Sixth, the efficiency differentiation of the energy industry

the energy trend in the second half of the year is expected to show three main characteristics: first, the overall growth of energy consumption. In terms of varieties, the demand for coal and oil is stable, the demand for natural gas is growing rapidly, and power continues to grow. Second, the proportion of clean and low-carbon energy has increased. Under the promotion of accelerating the implementation of coal to electricity and coal to gas innovation, which is the permanent driving force for sustainable development, and accelerating the development of clean and low-carbon energy, the energy structure has been further optimized. Third, the energy supply is stable and orderly, and the overall supply and demand is balanced and loose. In the whole year, it is planned to withdraw 150 million tons of coal production capacity, eliminate, suspend and postpone the construction of 50million kW coal-fired power units. Considering the existing production capacity, international energy prices, imports and other factors, it is expected that the energy supply will remain relatively loose in the second half of the year

Jiang Zhimin, vice president of China Coal Industry Association: in the second half of the year, the supply and demand of coal are basically balanced, but there may be tight timing problems.

in the first half of the year, the market supply and demand are basically balanced. Consumption increased slightly, production increased, and shipping increased significantly. The national coal inventory increased, including the decrease of coal storage in coal mines and the increase of coal storage in major users and ports. The market price fluctuates, the medium and long-term contract price is relatively stable, and the industrial benefits are increased, but the operating conditions of most enterprises have not been fundamentally improved

in the second half of the year, from the perspective of coal demand, on the one hand, as the macroeconomic situation continues to be stable and positive, it will drive coal consumption to maintain growth, especially during the peak heating period in summer and winter, the average daily coal consumption may further increase. On the other hand, in national governance, go: gauge distance D: thickness B: width of the middle parallel part; Gas environment, control the total amount of coal consumption, the substitution effect of non fossil energy on coal is increasing, and the growth rate of coal consumption is declining. At the same time, the impact of weather reasons and uncertainty of hydropower output on short-term changes in coal market demand deserves high attention

from the perspective of domestic coal production, on the one hand, with the stable improvement of the coal market, the enthusiasm of coal mine production has increased. At the same time, the reduction production policy has been adjusted, and some high-quality coal mines have increased their production capacity. In addition, the reduction and replacement progress has accelerated, the national coal output will continue to increase. On the other hand, the state will intensify the work of coal de capacity, and some backward production capacity will exit in an orderly manner. At the same time, it will continue to strengthen the supervision of coal mine safety production, environmental protection, utilization of mineral resources, and land use. The production capacity of some coal mines may be restricted, and the output of some coal mines with large safety arrears may decline in the short term

from the perspective of coal import, as the country further restricts the import of low-quality coal from the aspects of improving the quality level of commercial coal, strengthening industrial self-discipline and supervision, and standardizing the import order, the coal import volume is expected to decline

on the whole, the fundamentals of China's coal overcapacity and market supply exceeding demand have not changed, and the supply has generally changed to loose. In the second half of the year, the supply and demand of the coal market will remain basically balanced, but some regions may have tight time constraints due to resources and transportation constraints

Wang Bohua, Secretary General of China Photovoltaic Industry Association: the photovoltaic industry will continue to grow "beyond expectations" in the second half of the year

in the first half of the year, the scale of China's photovoltaic industry continues to expand, costs continue to decline, technology continues to progress, the development environment is further improved, the manufacturing industry of spring assemblies and product quality supervision departments at all levels are good, distributed is favored by enterprises, and application diversification begins to appear. In the first half of the year, the new installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation reached 24.4 GW, an increase of 9% year-on-year, of which the new installed capacity of distributed photovoltaic power generation was 7.11 GW, an increase of 2.9 times year-on-year. In the first half of the year, the cumulative installed capacity reached 101.82 GW, including 84.39 GW of photovoltaic power stations and 14.73 GW of distributed photovoltaic. At the same time, under the guidance of the "the Belt and Road" strategy and the influence of the international trade protection situation, the overseas layout of China's photovoltaic enterprises has accelerated, the pace of "going global" has accelerated, the capacity expansion is still strong, and the production layout is becoming more and more reasonable

in the second half of the year, the photovoltaic industry will continue to grow "more than expected", the growth rate of China's domestic market will slow down, international trade will still be under heavy pressure, technological competition will further intensify, and industrial upgrading will accelerate. It is expected that China's photovoltaic cell output will exceed 60 gigawatts this year, reaching a record high. At the same time, the development of China's photovoltaic industry is also facing many severe challenges, such as high non-technical costs, complex international trade environment and so on

He Jun, senior researcher of Anbang Consulting: beware of the disconnection between China's energy investment and economic demand

whether it is the development of the 12th Five Year Plan or the 13th five year plan, the growth rate of domestic energy production and energy demand is gradually decreasing. This is basically consistent with the trend of China's economic growth over the same period. During the 13th Five Year Plan period, China's economic growth may be around 6.5%. Considering the slowdown of China's economic growth, the shift of industrial structure from the secondary industry to the tertiary industry, the continuous improvement of China's economic energy consumption efficiency, and China's need to strengthen greenhouse gas emission restrictions, the growth rate of China's total energy demand will continue to slow down in the future. Accordingly, the growth rate of energy investment and construction in the future should be gradually reduced

strengthen the R & D and industrialization of downstream product chains and end products such as fluorosilicone materials, electronic chemicals and high-performance membrane materials from national energy; 3. From the perspective of R & D planning and future environmental protection and emission reduction targets of new technologies and products in the field of new chemical materials, such as inorganic ceramic membranes, graphene, ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene fibers, the important tasks of China's energy development in the future are: first, the adjustment of energy structure; second, the improvement of energy utilization efficiency, rather than total growth. However, some of the current energy development plans do not match these two key tasks, and still fall into the development momentum of people from all walks of life vying for the first place or even going hand in hand

stabilizing economic growth and adjusting the energy consumption structure are important reasons for China to increase energy investment, but China's economic slowdown and industrial restructuring have reduced the growth rate of China's energy demand. Energy construction and economic growth belong to the same big game. China should be alert to the mismatch between energy construction and economic development, and avoid the worsening of inefficient or even ineffective energy investment

Wang Qing and Bai Jun of the intercontinental energy consulting (Beijing) Institute of international cooperation: China's primary energy consumption is expected to stabilize in 2017

characteristics of China's energy market in 2016: first, the overall oil market is loose. Crude oil production fell for the first time in four years, and net imports surpassed the United States for the first time, becoming the world's largest net importer of crude oil for the first time; The growth rate of gasoline and kerosene consumption slowed down, and diesel consumption shrank for the first time in 15 years; The export of refined oil surged, and the export growth of gasoline and diesel expanded sharply. Second, natural gas imports have increased rapidly, consumption growth has rebounded significantly, gas storage construction has made some progress, and the seasonal contradiction between supply and demand is still prominent. Third, the growth rate of power consumption has rebounded significantly, the growth rate of power consumption in the secondary industry has changed from negative to positive, the proportion of clean energy power generation has further increased, and the utilization rate of thermal power equipment has declined for three consecutive years. Fourth, coal production fell sharply, and the work of reducing production capacity achieved initial results. Coal consumption continued to be depressed, net imports rose sharply, and prices gradually stabilized after rising sharply

it is expected that China's total apparent primary energy consumption will stabilize in 2017, and the proportion of clean and low-carbon energy consumption will continue to increase. First, the oil demand continues to slow down, the degree of external dependence is steadily rising, and the domestic consumption of refined oil will grow slowly, but the consumption of gasoline, kerosene and diesel will continue to be divided, and the supply and demand may be further relaxed. Second, natural gas consumption has increased steadily, among which urban gas consumption will continue to maintain rapid growth, but the industrial sector, steel, glass, ceramics and other major gas industries still face serious overcapacity problems. Third, the growth rate of electricity consumption in the secondary industry is difficult to increase rapidly, the tertiary industry and household electricity consumption will continue to grow rapidly, and the growth rate of national electricity consumption will fall; The utilization hours of thermal power equipment will continue to decline, and the market space of coal power will be further squeezed. Fourth, the coal capacity reduction will continue, the industry concentration will be further improved, and the control of large state-owned enterprises over the whole industry will be further strengthened. It is expected that the annual coal consumption will remain low

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